Key
Marked along the vertical axis are various estimates of the river stage
at 7:00 am on a particular day. Associated with each estimate is the
probability that the observed river stage will exceed this estimate.
Intervals of Exceedance Probability
Brown Interval spans estimates that will be exceeded with
probabilities smaller than 0.5.
Blue Interval spans estimates that will be exceeded with
probabilities greater than 0.5.
Light Brown color ends at the estimate that will be exceeded with
probability 0.005. Light Blue color ends at the estimate that will be
exceeded with probability 0.995. Thus the probability is
0.995 - 0.005 = 0.99 that the river stage will fall inside the
Total Interval.
Exceedance Fractiles
0.05 Exceedance Fractile (upper square) - the probability is
0.05 that the river stage will be above this estimate.
0.25 Exceedance Fractile (upper dot) - the probability is
0.25 that the river stage will be above this estimate.
Median (circle) - it is equally likely (probability 0.5) that
the river stage will be either below or above this estimate.
0.75 Exceedance Fractile (lower dot) - the probability is
0.75 that the river stage will be above this estimate.
0.95 Exceedance Fractile (lower square) - the probability is
0.95 that the river stage will be above this estimate.
Credible Intervals
0.5 Credible Interval (between lower dot and upper dot) -
the probability is 0.75 - 0.25 = 0.5 that the river stage will fall inside
this interval.
0.9 Credible Interval (between lower square and upper square) -
the probability is 0.95 - 0.05 = 0.9 that the river stage will fall inside
this interval.
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